Winding bidding back down after a seasonal peak without tanking volume

Question

Peak finished mid February and I have been putting this off ever since, which is its own
answer I suppose.

During the peak I loosened the target CPA because conversion rates were roughly double and
the volume was worth having. Conversion rates are now back to normal, the loosened target is
still in place, and the cost per booking has drifted up exactly as much as you would expect.

What I don't want to do is snap it back in one move and put everything into learning again
right as spring bookings start. What I also don't want is to spend three months easing it
down while paying peak prices for off-peak traffic!

Is there a sensible cadence for this? I have heard 10 to 15 percent at a time with a week
between, but I have no idea whether that number came from anywhere real or whether someone
made it up and it got repeated.

Aisha Noor · Answer

The 10 to 15 percent rule of thumb is real in the sense that it's what the guidance says,
and made up in the sense that nobody has published the working. What's genuinely true is
that a large target change re-enters learning and a small one does not, so the goal is
staying under whatever that invisible line is.

What I do: move 15 percent, then wait until the campaign has accumulated a meaningful
number of conversions at the new target rather than waiting a fixed week. On a busy
account that is three days. On a quiet one it's a fortnight, and moving weekly would mean
changing the target before you ever learn what the last change did.

Conversions, not calendar. The week is a proxy for data volume and it is a bad one.

Marcus Hale · Answer

Also worth writing down what normal was before the peak, because after two months of peak
numbers everyone's sense of a good CPA has quietly drifted - including yours.

We keep a note of the pre-peak baseline in the campaign description field so the number
survives the person.

Winding bidding back down after a seasonal peak without tanking volume

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